Harvard/Harris Poll Shows Immigration Second-Leading Issue Heading into Election

The Harvard Center for American Political Studies, the Harris Poll, and Harris X just released their latest poll, and it shows that immigration is the second-leading issue for American voters heading into the 2024 presidential election. It also reveals that the electorate is not sold on border promises by current Vice President (and Democratic presidential nominee) Kamala Harris. 

The poll was conducted between October 11 and 13, and involved 3,145 registered voters who were surveyed online by the Harris Poll and Harris X. The margin of error is +/- 1.8 percent. 

Biden Approval Rating 

It’s easy to forget there’s a current occupant of the Oval Office, President Joe Biden, and respondents were asked whether they approved or disapproved of his performance in 12 different issue areas, ranging from “racial equity” to the “Israel-Hamas conflict”. 

Biden received his highest marks on racial equity, with 49 percent of the voters polled approving of Biden’s handling of the topic. His lowest score was on the Israel-Hamas conflict, an area in which just 35 percent approved of Biden’s performance. 

Biden’s second-weakest issue? Immigration, with just 36 percent of registered voters approving of Biden’s handling of aliens and border issues. 

Most Important Issues – and Issue

Respondents were then offered 28 different issues (plus one catchall “other”) and asked, “What would you say are the most important issues facing the country today?” 

“Price increases/inflation” led the pack, with 39 percent of registered voters placing it on their list of most important. That’s actually a 3-point decline for inflation as a critical issue confronting the United States compared to polling a month before. 

Immigration, again, came in a close second, the choice of 35 percent of respondents and holding steady compared to that earlier polling.

Not surprisingly, there was a partisan split with respect to immigration: just 16 percent of Democratic voters put it on their list of top issues, compared to 36 percent of Independents and a whopping 53 percent of GOP adherents. In other words, absent weak Democratic concerns about immigration, it easily could have surpassed inflation. 

Immigration actually was the top issue for Republican respondents, outpacing inflation by 9 points (price increases were a top issue for 44 percent of GOP voters). 

Separately, respondents were given a list of nine different issues and asked which was most important to them personally. 

Once more, inflation led the way, the key personal issue for 46 percent of those polled (including 52 percent of Republicans and 47 percent of Independents, but just 39 percent of Democrats).

The second most important issue to voters personally was, at noted at the outset, immigration.

It was the choice of 14 percent of registered voters Harris polled, including 13 percent of Independents and a quarter – 25 percent – of Republicans. 

By contrast, only 5 percent of Democrats said that immigration was the issue that mattered to them the most personally. In fact, aside from the Israel-Hamas conflict (3 percent) and parental rights in schools (1 percent), no single issue was less important to Democratic voters than immigration.

Which Candidate Would Do a Better Job?

Harris next offered respondents a list of 19 different issues and asked them whether Harris or Trump would do a better job handling each. 

Harris was rated best at handling seven of those issues, led by abortion (an 18-point margin), healthcare (by 13 points), climate change (Harris +15), and racial equality (14 points in the vice president’s favor). 

Interestingly, Harris is also favored over Trump by 7 points (50 percent to 43 percent) when it comes to “helping the working class” and by 8 points when it comes to “helping small businesses”. 

Trump’s led on the rest, and his biggest edge issues are strengthening the military (Trump +13), standing up to China (Trump +13) – and immigration (Trump over Harris by 12 points). Notably, Trump is favored to handle immigration over Harris by a 17-point margin by Independents. 

Will Harris Continue the Biden Administration’s Policies?

Respondents were also asked: “Will Kamala Harris continue the Biden administration policies on issues like taxes, inflation, immigration, and energy or will she change direction?”

Overall, 60 percent of respondents believe that Harris will continue the current administration’s policies, while 40 percent expect her to change course (though in which direction, unfortunately, Harvard-Harris didn’t ask). 

Republicans were much more likely to think that a Harris administration will be more of the same (by a 66 percent to 34 percent margin), while Independents were just slightly less likely than Democrats to think that she will follow the current course (56 percent to 57 percent for Democrats).

Do You Support or Oppose Open Borders – and Does Harris?

In addition, Harvard-Harris asked respondents whether they personally “support or oppose open borders”, and whether Harris and Trump – respectively – support or oppose open borders. 

That vast majority, 62 percent, of respondents overall oppose open borders, including 61 percent of Independent voters and 83 percent of GOP ones, but notably the margins are much tighter among Democrats: 41 percent of those in the Party of Jackson oppose open borders, while 35 percent of them support the idea (24 percent weren’t sure or don’t know). 

Not surprisingly, an even bigger majority – 82 percent of those polled – believe that Donald Trump opposes open borders. That includes 83 percent of Independents, 85 percent of Republicans, and 77 percent of Democrats. 

A smaller but still significant majority – 58 percent – of respondents believe that Kamala Harris supports open borders. That includes (again, no shock) 77 percent of Republicans, but also 53 percent of Independents and 42 percent of Democrats. 

Notably, among Democrats, the most popular belief is that Kamala Harris is pro-open borders (33 percent think she opposes them and 25 percent are unsure), and in that they agree with their fellow voters regardless of political stripe. 

Majorities Oppose Free Healthcare – and Paid Sex-Change Operations – For Illegal Immigrants

As with the previous question, Harvard-Harris asked respondents whether they were for or against free healthcare for illegal immigrants and whether they thought that Harris and Trump supported such a program. 

In response, 61 percent of respondents overall opposed free healthcare for the undocumented population, a position taken by 66 percent of Independents and 81 percent of Republicans. Free healthcare for illegal aliens, however, is supported by 41 percent of Democrats – their top choice, albeit a plurality one.

Separately, respondents were asked whether they were for or against paid sex-change operations for those who had entered the country illegally. 

On that question, 76 percent of overall respondents were opposed: 79 percent of Independents; 86 percent of Republicans; and even 64 percent of Democrats (16 percent of whom favored the idea). 

That said, 60 percent of respondents believed that Harris supports free healthcare for illegal immigrants, and 47 percent – the leading plurality response – thought that Harris also favored free sex-change operations for those here in violation of law (including 24 percent of Democrats).

Not to overuse the word, but “curiously”, 78 percent of respondents believed that Trump opposed free healthcare for aliens who aren’t here legally, though “just” 75 percent thought that he opposed paid sex-change operations for illegal aliens. I am truly unsure what to make of that. 

Key Takeaways

Given these responses, expect to hear a lot from the Trump-Vance ticket about immigration and the border as they try to solidify their base and attract undecided independent voters. Harris will likely only raise those issues when asked, because her base almost couldn’t care less about them.