Immigration Still Second-Biggest Issue for U.S. Voters

The latest Harvard/Harris poll is out. Immigration remains the second-biggest issue for American voters, even as President Trump’s promised crackdown on the border proceeds apace, while favorability ratings for the Department of Homeland Security have soared. DHS now is second among the institutions polled in the voters’ esteem, trailing only the U.S. military in favorability, but it’s not that big of a surprise given the electorate’s collective support for deporting criminal aliens and securing the border.

That poll was conducted by The Harris Poll and Harris X for the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard University; 2,443 registered voters were surveyed, and the poll’s margin of error was +/- 2.0 percentage points.

Uptick in the Voters’ Mood

Pollsters first asked respondents whether the United States was on the “right track” or the “wrong track”, and while the results were mixed, they’re headed in the right direction for the administration.

Some 48 percent of respondents believe the country is on the wrong track, while 42 percent said the Republic is headed in the right direction — a six-point margin in favor of the pessimists.

Consider, however, that when Harvard/Harris last asked this question, before the inauguration in January, just 25 percent of those polled stated that the country was on the right track, while a solid majority — 58 percent, said it was on the wrong track.

That suggests that many voters who were still in the downy dumps and not quite sold on the president-elect were taking a negative view before Trump took office but are pleasantly surprised about where he is taking the country. Other evidence in that poll supports that conclusion.

Trump Approval

Trump currently enjoys an overall positive approval rating, with 50 percent of the respondents approving of the job he is doing as president, compared to 43 percent who disapprove — 7 points in the black.

Within those overall numbers, there are large numbers of voters who take a dour — or conversely ebullient — view of the 47^th president: 31 percent of respondents strongly approve of Trump’s performance; and 34 percent strongly disapprove. By contrast, 19 percent are slightly more muted in their approval, but still happy with the president’s performance, while 9 percent “somewhat” disapprove of what he is doing.

Trump’s Most favorable issue? Immigration.

In that poll, 56 percent of respondents approve of the incumbent’s handling of immigration, compared to just 34 percent who approved of the job his predecessor was doing (immigration was Biden’s worst issue, tied with inflation).

By comparison, 53 percent approve of what Trump is doing to reduce the cost of government and return America to its values (respectively); 49 percent approve of how he is administering the government and handling the economy (respectively); and 45 percent approve of Trump’s inflation-reduction efforts.

That latter response is not a bright spot for the president, but he’s still 11 points above Biden in voters’ estimation of his response to inflation.

Regardless, Trump enjoys the second-highest favorability margin among 15 public figures polled, trailing only HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. RFK is nine points above water in the voters’ estimation, with a 46 percent favorability rating and 37 percent unfavorable. (Trump’s favorable rating was higher than RFK’s, but so was his unfavorable rating.) Meanwhile, Vice President J.D. Vance is in third place, with a 4 point favorable margin (42 percent favorable/38 percent unfavorable).

High-profile Democrats didn’t fare so well.

Just 39 percent of voters have a favorable impression of former Vice President Kamala Harris (53 percent unfavorable); only a quarter, 25 percent, view New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez favorably (38 percent unfavorable); and Sen. Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) is viewed unfavorably by 41 percent of respondents, compared to 23 percent who have warmer feelings toward the former majority leader.

Both former President Biden and former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo are 24 points in the red when it comes to voters’ impressions, with Biden polling at 34 percent favorable/58 percent unfavorable and Cuomo at 15 percent favorable/39 percent unfavorable.

DHS’s Newfound Favorability

The Harris Poll and Harris X asked respondents if they viewed 18 different institutions favorably or unfavorably, and not surprisingly, the U.S. military came out on top with a bullet.

Some 78 percent of respondents viewed our soldiers, sailors, Air Force, and Marines favorably, compared to 11 percent of voters who viewed the armed services unfavorably.

In second place, as noted at the outset, was DHS: 55 percent of respondents to the Harvard/Harris poll had a favorable view of the department, while just 25 percent had disfavor toward DHS.

Contrast that 30-point favorability margin for DHS with the results of a poll conducted by Gallup in October 2023.

In that poll, just 42 percent of respondents rated DHS’s performance as “excellent” (12 percent) or “good” (30 percent), while 37 percent rated DHS’s performance as only “fair” and 27 percent said the department was doing a “poor” job (57 percent combined).

That’s not an apples-to-apples comparison, but DHS’s current 30-point positive favorability gap exceeds the 17-point favorability margin NATO received, the Department of Justice’s 45 percent favorable/35 percent unfavorable rating, or even the 12-point net positive score respondents gave the Supreme Court (48 percent favorable and 36 percent unfavorable).

Deportations and “Closing the Border”

DHS’s favorability bump likely has to do with support for the department’s immigration-enforcement duties.

In the Harvard/Harris poll, 81 percent of voters support plans to deport criminal aliens here illegally (19 percent oppose) and more than three-quarters of respondents, 76 percent, support “closing the border with added security and policies that discourage illegal crossings” (24 percent oppose).

Note that these are not just Republican issues — criminal deportations and border security receive strong bipartisan support.

Not surprisingly, 92 percent of GOP voters favor deporting criminal aliens and an equal percentage want additional border security. That said, even 70 percent of Democrats polled are eager to say goodbye to alien criminals, and 61 percent want a beefed-up border.

Most Important Issues

Support for those policies are likely particularly keen given the concerns that American voters continue to have over immigration.

Respondents were asked what they thought “the most important issues facing the country today” were, and “inflation” came out on top, a response given by 38 percent of those polled.

Immigration came in a close second, at 35 percent, and was also the second leader when respondents were asked what issue was most important to them personally (14 percent, compared to inflation at 41 percent).

As an aside, it goes to show how far off-track Americans believe their country had gone to note that “restoring basic American values of merit and competence” was the third-place finisher on that latter question, at 13 percent. That said, we should take heart that “merit” and “competence” are viewed as “American values” to begin with.

Trump promised to increase criminal deportations and boost border security on the campaign trail, and in the early going at least, he’s delivering. That’s good for the administration, and DHS in particular, because those issues are very popular with an American electorate still concerned about immigration.