Op-ed: Trump’s ‘Reasonable Suspicion’ Immigration Raids Have Strong Statistical Backing

On Monday, the Supreme Court lifted a district-court injunction that blocked federal agents from making immigration stops based on certain demographic characteristics. District Judge Maame Ewusi-Mensah Frimpong had ruled that location, occupation, language, and ethnicity – taken individually or in combination — are not sufficient to establish reasonable suspicion that someone is an illegal alien. But as Justice Kavanaugh explained in staying Judge Frimpong’s order, circumstances on the ground make reliance on such factors entirely reasonable.
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I will leave it to the lawyers to say exactly what “reasonable suspicion” means in a legal sense these days. However, if a law enforcement officer encounters a suspect who has about a 50–50 chance of having committed the violation that the officer is investigating, then common sense suggests that a stop is justified.
