Curious Takeaways from the Latest WaPo/Ipsos Poll

On Friday, the Washington Post and opinion outfit Ipsos released the results of their latest poll, in which they surveyed 2,513 U.S. adults between September 11 and 15. The results were curious, and though voters may not be thrilled with Trump’s immigration policies, they still think enforcement is better than the alternative.

For reference purposes, that poll has a margin of error of +/- two percentage points.

Trump Approval

For starters, the president is 10 points in the hole among registered voters for the way he’s handling his job generally, with 55 percent of them disapproving of his performance compared to 45 percent who approve.

His net approval is strongest among men (47 percent approval) and Republicans (89 percent approval) and consequently weakest among women (40 percent approval) and Democrats (8 percent approval).

Trump’s not doing that well overall with Independents, either, scoring an anemic 31 percent approval rating among political nomads, compared to 67 percent net disapproval.

Opinions are more mixed when it comes to Trump’s handling of immigration.

According to the WaPo/Ipsos poll, 47 percent of registered voters approve of the job that Trump is doing with respect to that subject, compared to 52 percent who disapprove — a five-point difference in the red for the incumbent.

That narrows to a two-point differential among men (48 percent approve vs. 52 percent disapprove), though Trump’s handling of immigration is wildly popular with Republican adults, 88 percent of whom approve and just 11 percent of whom disapprove.

Among Independents, just 34 percent approve of the president’s handling of immigration, while 64 percent disapprove — a 30-point hole that rises to 81 points among Democrats (9 percent approval vs. 90 percent disapproval).

How Many Immigrants Should Have Been Deported?

WaPo and Ipsos next asked an unusual question: “Thinking about immigrants who were deported by the Trump administration this year, in your opinion, how many of them should have been deported?”

In response, half — 50 percent — of registered voters said “nearly all” (30 percent) or “most” (20 percent) of the aliens deported under Trump should have been removed, whereas 47 percent said that “less than half” (24 percent) or “hardly any” (23 percent) of them should have required to go.

It’s not entirely clear from the question generally or from those negative responses whether: (1) a large minority of Americans think DHS is deporting aliens in violation of law; (2) many in the public appreciate the stringent requirements DHS must legally satisfy to physically deport any given alien from the United States; and/or (3) a bunch of Americans don’t think anyone here illegally should be forced to leave.

Regardless, a slight majority plainly thinks the Trump administration is doing what the law requires in removing aliens from the United States.

Which Party Would Do a Better Job Handling Immigration?

Which brings me to “question 25c” in the WaPo/Ipsos poll: “Which political party do you trust to do a better job handling immigration?”

In response, a solid plurality of registered voters, 46 percent, put more faith in the GOP to handle immigration, while just 29 percent trusted Democrats, a 17-point gap in favor of the current majority party in the House and Senate.

Nearly a quarter, 24 percent, of registered voters didn’t trust either party.

In fact, aside from Democratic, black, Hispanic, and “postgraduate” respondents, every demographic group listed (and there were too many to count) trusted Republicans more than Democrats when it came to handling immigration, and among Hispanic men and postgraduates, their preferences were evenly split between the two parties.

Even “white college graduate women” trusted the GOP (40 percent) more than the Democrats (37 percent) in dealing with alien entries and departures. And among their male graduate counterparts, that split was truly remarkable, with 53 percent of graduate white men favoring Republican handling of immigration compared to just 24 percent who liked what Democrats would do on the issue.

By the way, the plurality choice among Independents was “neither” (though between the two parties, they trusted Republicans over Democrats by a 10-point margin, 30 percent to 20 percent), which likely explains why they’re unaligned.

“Immigration Is Tough”

During a September 2021 interview with ABC’s “Good Morning America”, former President Obama likely spoke for most Americans when he explained:

Immigration is tough. It always has been because, on the one hand, I think we are naturally a people that wants to help others. And we see tragedy and hardship and families that are desperately trying to get here so that their kids are safe, and they’re in some cases fleeing violence or catastrophe. … At the same time, we’re a nation state. We have borders. The idea that we can just have open borders is something that … as a practical matter, is unsustainable.

After four years of de facto open borders under the last administration, voters opted for a change, which Trump and his border czar Tom Homan are attempting to deliver. Enforcing our immigration laws will always be “tough”, but in the end, most voters prefer it to the alternative.