Latest Harvard/Harris Poll: Immigration Enforcement Is Very Popular with Voters

Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson signed an executive order this week creating so-called “ICE free” zones in the Windy City, just the latest in a series of state and municipal efforts to stymie the agency’s enforcement efforts. But if the latest Harvard/Harris poll is to be believed, enforcing the immigration laws — particularly with respect to criminal illegal aliens — is among the most popular policies for the U.S. electorate. Why the disconnect between Democratic talking points and voter sentiment?

That poll was conducted by the Harris Poll and Harris X for the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard University, surveying 2,413 registered voters between October 1 and 2. The margin of error is +/- 1.99 percentage points — an important point for the analysis that follows.

Trump’s Popularity

Just to set the stage, understand that this is not a “Trump-friendly poll” by any stretch.

Some 51 percent of those polled stated that the country is on the “wrong track” (40 percent said the Republic is on the “right track”), 53 percent said the economy was on the wrong track (37 percent claimed pocketbook issues were on the right track), and the president’s overall approval rating was at 46 percent, roughly equivalent to where Trump stood last month in the same poll (47 percent).

And aside from Trump’s efforts to “fight crime in America’s cities”, which half (50 percent) of those polled approved of, the president is underwater on every other major issue, from “handling inflation” and “tariffs” (both areas in which he received a 40 percent approval rating) to “foreign affairs” (44 percent approval) to “reducing the cost of the government” (47 percent approval).

Crime-fighting aside, the only other subject the president is close to even on is “immigration”, a subject on which 49 percent of respondent’s approve of Trump’s performance.

Keep in mind “fighting crime” and “immigration” when I tell you the rest.

“Closing the Border with Added Security and Policies that Discourage Illegal Crossings”

Harvard/Harris polled respondent’s approval of 20 different policies, including “banning men who have undergone operations and hormones to become women from girls’ sports” and “lowering prescription drug prices for Medicare recipients and low-income patients” (a perennial winner).

Three of those policies are directly ties to immigration, and the first one I’ll discuss is “closing the border with added security and policies that discourage illegal crossings”, a subject even Trump’s most embittered enemies reluctantly agree he’s excelled in.

That’s not quite as popular as cheap drugs for “seasoned citizens” as the late Rush Limbaugh called them, but it was closer than you might imagine.

Some 68 percent of those polled favored closing the border, including 65 percent of Independents, a whopping 87 percent of GOP voters, and even a majority (51 percent) of Democrats, raising the question of why the Biden administration waited nearly four years to make even a half-hearted attempt to achieve that goal.

“Deporting Immigrants Who Are Here Illegally and Have Committed Crimes”

The second immigration-related issue was “deporting immigrants who are here illegally and have committed crimes”.

That is the second most popular proposal among the 20 polled, garnering the support of 78 percent of registered voters, including 87 percent of Republicans, more than three-quarters (77 percent) of Independents, and even more than two-thirds (69 percent) of Democrats.

That support is all the more impressive when considering that when Harvard/Harris polled on this question in late August, “only” 63 percent of registered Democrats and 72 percent of Independent voters supported deporting criminal illegal aliens.

In other words, even as such Democratic luminaries as Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, Oregon Gov. Tina Kotek, and California Gov. Gavin Newsom fulminate against Trump proposals for National Guard troops to protect ICE facilities, as rioters assaulted ICE officers in Illinois and Portland, and as an assassin targeted an ICE facility in Dallas, support from Democratic and Independent voters for ICE’s core mission has risen.

This isn’t a mere “blip” in the Harvard/Harris polling: The five-point rise in support among Independents and six-point increase among Democrats for deporting criminal illegal aliens is well outside the poll’s two-point margin of error.

Yet, if you follow media reports, listen to elected officials’ talking points, or watch the street violence, you’d assume the vast majority of the public wants ICE shut down, permanently.

“Deporting All Immigrants Who Are Here Illegally”

Speaking of the media, it’s been awash in articles over the past few weeks claiming Trump and Border Czar Tom Homan are lying about their “worst first” policy, under which ICE focuses its efforts on those criminal illegal aliens the vast majority of voters want deported.

Consider the following headline from Yahoo! News on October 7: “Is ICE really targeting the ‘worst of the worst?’ New data suggests otherwise. Detainees with no criminal record now outnumber those with prior convictions”.

Or this headline, from the Baltimore Sun on October 2: “More than a third of ICE detainees have no criminal record, data shows”. The Economist (UK), September 23: “Criminals make up a shrinking share of ICE arrests”. The Savannah Morning News, also on September 23: “ICE is targeting immigrants without criminal convictions for arrest in Georgia”.

Note that the subhead on that Economist article states: “Our five charts show why America’s deportation drive is becoming increasingly unpopular”. But is that assertion true? Let’s check.

In its latest poll, Harvard/Harris asked respondents whether they support “deporting all immigrants who are here illegally” — not just criminal illegal aliens.

Some 56 of respondents supported that “mass deportation” plan, including (not surprisingly) more than two-thirds of GOP voters (76 percent) but also a solid majority (54 percent) of Independents.

It only garnered the support of 36 percent of Democrats, but that’s roughly equivalent to the 38 percent of voters on the left who support strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.

Harvard/Harris didn’t poll on that question in August, but I have a feeling that as attacks on ICE have surged in the past month, support for a wider-ranging deportation regime has increased in much the same way as it rose for removals of criminal illegal aliens during that period.

Why the Disconnect between Elected Officials and the Electorate?

If the Harvard/Harris polling is correct — and there’s every reason to believe it is — there is a disconnect between popular narratives about shrinking support for ICE enforcement and actual support for the agency’s deportation efforts. The only question is “why?”

I reflexively recoil from claims about the D.C. “echo chamber”, a never-ending circle of political claims regurgitated by a largely simpatico media that then flows into politicians’ talking points and begins anew, but the alleged (and false) unpopularity of ICE enforcement appears to give support to its existence.

“Godwin’s Law” is a maxim that claims “As an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazis or Hitler approaches one” -— i.e., becomes certain. I’d add a corollary and contend that the more quickly one side starts in with the Third Reich analogies, the more likely that side is losing the argument.

This poll makes clear that Americans like “law and order”, including immigration enforcement. Trump has a skill for bringing out the worst in his political opponents — but the sooner they get wise to popular sentiment and drop their reflexive hatred of ICE, the better it will be for their electoral prospects, and the country.