President Trump’s FY 2026 Refugee Ceiling set at 7,500

The Presidential Determination on Refugee Admissions for Fiscal Year 2026 was published in the Federal Register Friday (a few weeks late because of the government shutdown). The refugee admissions ceiling set at 7,500 refugees is, according to President Trump, “justified by humanitarian concerns or is otherwise in the national interest.” 

Prioritizing Groups for Resettlement

Under the Trump administration, FY 2026 resettlement spots are to “primarily be allocated among Afrikaners from South Africa pursuant to Executive Order 14204, and other victims of illegal or unjust discrimination in their respective homelands.”

South Africans. On February 7, 2025, President Trump issued executive order “Addressing Egregious Actions of The Republic of South Africa” to allow for the resettlement of Afrikaners into the United States. 

There are several reasons behind this push. First, as Trump explained in his EO, “South Africa has taken aggressive positions towards the United States and its allies, including accusing Israel, not Hamas, of genocide in the International Court of Justice.” 

Second, in January 2025, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa signed a “controversial land seizure law” allowing land seizures by the state without compensation of farmland owned mainly by white South Africans, especially Afrikaners. The law replaces the 1975 Expropriation Act that had the state pay owners it wanted to take land from, following the “willing seller, willing buyer” model. Furthermore, “violent crimes against farm owners” in South Africa have long been a concern and could be on the rise. 

While the February EO focused on white Afrikaners (the descendants of mainly Dutch and French colonial settlers who first came to South Africa in the 17th century), eligibility for resettlement was expanded to include other racial minorities. 

Other Eligible Groups. Trump does not elaborate on who these other “victims of illegal or unjust discrimination in their respective homelands” might be. We will know more once the Proposed Refugee Admissions for Fiscal Year 2026 is out – its release has been delayed due to the government shutdown. (Friday’s Presidential Determination was just a one-page memo, not the full report.)

That said, and as reported by the Washington Post that seems to be well-informed, “free speech advocates in Europe” could be prioritized for resettlement by the Trump administration.

Presidential Prerogative. It is the prerogative of the U.S. president in office to prioritize populations of concern for resettlement. Biden pushed his administration to identify and expedite resettlement for lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer, and intersex (LGBTQI+) individuals after issuing a “Memorandum on Advancing the Human Rights of LGBTQI+ Persons Around the World” days after he was sworn into office. The former president also increased resettlement efforts for individuals from Latin America and the Caribbean. 

Trump’s Refugee Policy

FY 2026 Presidential Determination cited above is in line with the following Trump administration’s executive orders and proclamation:

Executive Order 14204, which provides for refugee resettlement of Afrikaners from South Africa who are victims of unjust racial discrimination (see above).

Executive Order 14161, “Protecting the United States From Foreign Terrorists and Other National Security and Public Safety Threats”, which mandates that refugees receive the most “stringent identification verification beyond that required of any other alien seeking admission or entry to the United States.”

It is true that the refugee resettlement program poses a substantial security challenge. The vetting of refugees, no matter how “extreme”, is not enough. The task of checking refugees’ backgrounds is often impossible, given the lack of solid on-the-ground intelligence systems and the absence of dependable screening measures from conflict zones.

Executive Order 14163, “Realigning the United States Refugee Admissions Program”, which suspends the entry into the United States of refugees other than “when the Secretaries of State and Homeland Security jointly determine that an admission is in the national interest and does not threaten the security or welfare of the United States.”

This suspension, as explained by Trump, was to allow his administration to focus on looking for ways to “only admit those refugees who can fully and appropriately assimilate into the United States”; grant state and local jurisdictions “a role in the process of determining the placement or settlement in their jurisdictions of aliens eligible to be admitted to the United States as refugees”; while keeping Americans as safe as possible and preserving “taxpayer resources for its citizen.”

Proclamation 10949, “Restricting the Entry of Foreign Nationals to Protect the United States from Foreign Terrorists and Other National Security and Public Safety Threats”, which restricts the entry of “certain foreign nationals whose admission would be detrimental to the national interest.” These restrictions apply to both immigrants and nonimmigrants.

President Trump has determined to “fully restrict and limit the entry of nationals of the following 12 countries: Afghanistan, Burma, Chad, Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Haiti, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen.” 

Trump has also determined to “partially restrict and limit the entry of nationals of the following 7 countries: Burundi, Cuba, Laos, Sierra Leone, Togo, Turkmenistan, and Venezuela.” 

Biden Changed the Meaning of Resettlement

U.S. Refugee Admissions Program (USRAP) lost its purpose under the Biden-Harris administration. Beyond admitting increasing numbers of refugees, the Biden-Harris administration extended the benefits and beneficiaries of the Office of Refugee Resettlement (ORR) to include non-refugees on U.S. soil; it added Afghan and Ukrainian parolees to ORR’s list of beneficiaries. ORR, under the former administration, was “projecting to serve 531,500 other arrivals” in FY 2025, in addition to refugee arrivals through USRAP, which were capped at 125,000.

Biden’s welcoming policies led to higher costs. Under his administration, the estimated “Funding for Refugee Processing and Resettlement” totaled $2.8 billion in FY 2024 and were set to amount to $5.1 billion in FY 2025. For comparison, the estimated cost was $2.2 billion in FY 2023, $1.4 billion in FY 2022, $967 million in FY 2021, $932 million in FY 2020, and $976 million in FY 2019. 

More importantly, admitting increasing numbers of “refugees” did not necessarily equate with extending refuge to those genuinely facing persecution. 

The Biden-Harris administration changed the essence of resettlement itself, which has always been presented as a “life-saving” endeavor. It prioritized the admission of “refugees” from Latin America to try and discourage illegal border crossings. Moreover, by launching the “Welcome Corps”, a private sponsorship program within the USRAP, the former administration chose not to resettle the most vulnerable, but rather to privilege those who happen to have friends or family who made it here before them. 

For Most Refugees, Resettlement Is Not the Answer

Most refugees flee to neighboring countries close to their homes in the hope of returning when possible. According to Oxford economics professor Paul Collier, refugees need a “haven that is proximate, so that it is easy to reach and from which it is easy to return once a conflict ends.” So why bring people away from their cultural and familiar surroundings by resettling them in the United States?

Collier and his colleague, Oxford refugee scholar Alexander Betts, argue that there are more effective ways to help refugees and address what they see as a failing system. In their book, Refuge: Rethinking Refugee Policy in a Changing World, they call for a fundamental transformation of refugee policy that is truly fit for the twenty-first century. They believe more effort should be directed toward addressing the refugee crisis closer to its main source and call to “Help refugees help themselves”. Collier explains: “We have responsibilities towards refugees but the way to fulfill these responsibilities is not to take a lucky few out of those contexts but to do things that work for all.” (Emphasis added.)

Instead of pushing for more permanent resettlement (as Biden did), the United States should put more emphasis on proximity help and, ultimately, return. 

From his first term into his second, Trump’s approach appears to have prioritized proximity assistance and the creation of conditions conducive to the safe and voluntary return of refugees.

Refugee Ceilings under Biden and Trump

Refugee Ceilings set by Biden:

Refugee Ceilings set by Trump:

(Source: Refugee Processing Center)