Harvard/Harris Releases Immigration-Heavy Poll

The Center for American Political Studies at Harvard University, the Harris Poll, and Harris X just released the results of their latest poll, and it’s immigration-heavy, querying respondents on numerous issues related to deportation and the border. And though the results are all over the map, the poll shows that solid majorities still support border security and the deportation of criminal illegal aliens, the keystones of Trump’s immigration policies.

That poll was conducted between June 11 and 12 and surveyed 2,097 registered voters. The margin of error was +/- 2.2 points.

Strength of the U.S. Economy

For a second month, a majority of respondents, 52 percent, described the U.S. economy as “strong”. That’s up from 51 percent in May and reverses a nearly five-year trend of negative impressions of the economy that began under the Biden administration in October 2021.

Still, and somewhat paradoxically, just 39 percent of respondents in the most recent Harvard/Harris poll stated that the U.S. economy is “on the right track”, while 53 percent stated that the economy is “on the wrong track”, up two points from May.

Trump Approval Rating

The president’s overall approval rating in the June poll stood at 46 percent, while 50 percent of respondents disapproved of the job Trump is doing as president.

This represents a steady decline in approval since the erstwhile 45^th president returned to office, when he enjoyed a 52 percent approval rating that then dipped to 49 percent in March, 48 percent in April, and 47 percent in May.

Trump’s approval on immigration also fell in June, to 49 percent, compared to 51 percent in both April and May. Still, immigration remains Trump’s best issue in the Harvard/Harris poll, besting impressions of his performance in taming inflation (42 percent) and boosting the economy (44 percent).

In a somewhat immigration-related question, 46 percent of respondents approved of Trump’s response to the riots in Los Angeles, his third-best performance rating and tied with his efforts to “reduce the cost of government”. Trump’s attempts at “returning America to its values” came in second, at 48 percent.

Relatedly, California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) received a 29 percent favorability rating in that poll (36 percent unfavorable, net -6 points) and L.A. Mayor Karen Bass (D) was viewed favorably by just 17 percent of those surveyed (with a 25 percent unfavorable rating, net -8 points). Trump had a 46 percent favorable and 49 percent unfavorable (net -3 points) rating in that poll, besting his Democrat rivals.

Top Issues

There was a resurgence in immigration as an issue in the Harvard/Harris poll this month.

Respondents were offered a variety of policy concerns and asked which were “the most important facing the country today”.

The perennial front-runner and once again winner was “inflation/price increases”, the choice of 34 percent of respondents and unchanged since May.

Immigration came in second, the choice of nearly a third, 32 percent, of those polled. That’s a five-point increase since May, displacing jobs and the economy (which declined three points since May) for the penultimate spot among the “most important issues”.

Separately, respondents were asked what one issue was “most important” to them “personally”.

Again, immigration, the choice of 14 percent of those polled, took second place behind inflation (39 percent) on that question. That was a three-point rise for immigration compared to May.

Note that while inflation was the key personal issue for partisans of all stripes, immigration was the second-most important issue for Republicans (at 21 percent) but also the third-most important for Democrats (at 10 percent, just below “climate change” at 11 percent) and Independents (11 percent, trailing the 15 percent of the politically unaligned who said “restoring basic American values of merit and competence” was most personally important to them).

As I’ve stated for years in reviewing polls, “immigration” can mean many things to different people, from more deportations to more green cards, and this latest poll reflects that. The topic is never far from the minds of many voters, but the recent unrest over immigration enforcement has likely once again pushed it to the fore.

Should Dems Oppose Trump on Immigration?

Respondents were asked whether “Democrats should oppose Trump on immigration policy or see how his initiative plays out over the next few weeks?”, and the results were what you would expect, with one possible surprise.

Overall, 54 percent of respondents prefer the “wait and see” option, while 46 percent want Democrats to oppose Trump on immigration at every turn.

More than three-quarters (76 percent) of Democrats prefer full resistance, while 80 percent of GOP voters opt for a more cautious approach. No surprise there, as immigration has become a Rorschach test for political leanings.

That said, 58 percent of Independents also counsel a more cautious tack, compared to 42 percent of political nomads who want Democrats in full opposition mode.

Support for Deportations of Criminal Illegal Aliens

Harvard/Harris asked respondents whether they favored or opposed various and sundry proposals, and two immigration-related ones garnered significant support.

Four out of five respondents, 80 percent, supported a plan to deport illegal aliens who have committed crimes — the second-most popular proposal after only lowering drug prices for the elderly and low-income individuals.

And two-thirds of those polled, 67 percent, favored “closing the border with added security and policies that discourage illegal crossings”, the fifth-leading choice out of 15 polled.

Separately, Harvard/Harris asked respondents whether they supported two Trump immigration initiatives: “the administration’s actions to close the southern border”; and its “efforts to deport criminals who are here illegally”.

In response, 63 percent of those polled supported what Trump is doing to secure the Southwest border (including 62 percent of Independents), and a whopping 74 percent were in favor of White House efforts to deport criminal illegal aliens (including 57 percent of Democrat voters and three-quarters — 75 percent — of Independents).

Those two policies — expanding deportations of criminal aliens and border security — are the keystones of Trump’s immigration agenda, which likely explains why DHS has felt the need to put out fact checks responding to what it deems erroneous and conflated claims in high-profile removal cases.

Violence Against ICE

In a similar vein, respondents were asked whether “sanctuary cities and states [that] oppose the administration’s immigration policies” should “deploy their police force to stop violence towards federal agents or should they not involve themselves”.

In response, 71 percent of those polled (and a similar percentage of Independents) favored local cops providing back-up when ICE officers get attacked. For what it’s worth, even 65 percent of Democratic voters favored such a plan.

That said, respondents to the Harvard/Harris poll were reluctant to blame Democratic elected officials for that violence. Just 41 percent of those polled believed the president’s political opponents were “encouraging” attacks on ICE (a belief held by 67 percent of GOP voters) whereas 59 percent thought Democrats weren’t encouraging violence against the agency (including 62 percent of Independents).

On somewhat related points, 56 percent of those polled support Trump’s calling up the National Guard “to help suppress ant-ICE riots”, including 55 percent of Independents but only 29 percent of Democrat voters, and 55 percent of respondents thought that the president “should be able to deploy the national guard to protect federal agents and property when local city and state law enforcement won’t act”.

That latter response garnered the support of 53 percent of Independents but just 28 percent of Democrat voters — a significant majority of whom (72 percent) believed National Guard troops “should only be deployed at the request of states”.

While no one wants troops on our streets, these disparate responses likely reflect respective memories of the riots that roiled America’s cities in the wake of the death of George Floyd in the spring and summer of 2020.

Taking that question one step further, Harvard/Harris asked respondents whether they blamed Trump or Mayor Bass and Gov. Newsom more for the “spiraling unrest” in L.A.

A majority (55 percent, including 44 percent of GOP voters) pointed the finger at Trump and his immigration policies and deployment of the Guard for the unrest, whereas the remaining 45 percent (but including 48 percent of Independents) faulted Bass and Newsom “for calling to resist federal agents and not deploying the police to stop violence”.

If you’re seeking total consistency in voters’ impressions of who is to blame for immigration-related unrest, find another poll, but this latest Harvard/Harris survey reflects what most Americans already know: They want criminal aliens off the streets, and a secure border. On those two points, solid majorities agree.