Reducing the Size of the Illegal Population Would Not Impose ‘Devastating Costs’

A report from the immigration lawyers’ think tank suggests Disney would have trouble finding cast members if illegal aliens were to be deported.

The Congressional Budget Office has estimated that the number of “other foreign nationals” (mostly illegals) who entered in 2021-2023 exceeded the agency’s baseline expectations by over 4 million, with more on the way. The ongoing influx defies the will of Congress, flouts the rule of law, strains infrastructure, reduces labor market opportunities for less-educated Americans, and threatens to remake the U.S. culturally and politically. 

So what can be done to reverse course? Nothing, says the American Immigration Council (AIC, established by the American Immigration Lawyers Association as its “non-profit partner”), because deportation is too expensive. According to that organization’s new report, removing even 1 million illegal immigrants would cost $88 billion per year. Frankly, with a federal budget topping $6 trillion, $88 billion does not sound like a prohibitive sum. Nevertheless, removing illegal aliens is not nearly as costly the AIC imagines. In fact, it would save taxpayers money on public services that illegal immigrants consume.

To begin with, much of the estimated cost in the AIC report derives from fanciful deportation forces and mass detention camps that are the stuff of political rhetoric only. Policymakers serious about reducing the illegal population should pursue attrition through enforcement. As my colleague Jessica Vaughan has explained, “mandatory workplace verification of immigration status; measures to curb misuse of Social Security and IRS identification numbers; partnerships with state and local law enforcement officials; expanded entry-exit recording under US-VISIT; increased non-criminal removals; and state and local laws to discourage illegal settlement” are inexpensive measures that can combine to reduce the illegal population over time. 

The AIC report also cites the loss of taxes paid by illegal immigrants, but it neglects the other side of the ledger – that is, the public benefits that illegal immigrants consume. Using the Survey of Income and Program Participation, we recently estimated that 59 percent of households headed by illegal immigrants use one or more major welfare programs, costing roughly $42 billion. Illegal immigrants also place significant burdens on public education. Given the average cost per student, the estimated 4 million children (mostly U.S.-born) of illegal immigrants in public schools cost $68 billion in 2019. 

Illegal immigrants impose many other costs as well, including on “congestible” public goods, such as transportation, infrastructure, and law enforcement. Based on data from a National Academies report covering all taxes paid and benefits received at every level of government, we estimate that the average illegal immigrant imposes a lifetime fiscal cost (in net present value) of about $68,000.

Despite its unrealistic cost estimates, the AIC report is correct in one sense: Growing the illegal population is much easier than reducing it.

The other deportation costs listed in the AIC report are even less concerning. For example, the report says that “mass deportation would exacerbate the U.S. labor shortage.” It even notes as part of a case study that “Walt Disney World had trouble finding cast members” after Florida started requiring the E-Verify system to screen out illegal immigrants. But there is no labor shortage, either generally or at theme parks, as we have explained many times. There is only a shortage of workers who will accept the (low) wages that employers wish to pay. Removing the crutch of illegal immigrant workers will compel employers such as Disney to recruit from the millions of working-age Americans who are currently out of the labor force. 

Finally, AIC’s warning that deportation will reduce national GDP is misleading. Immigrants do increase GDP, but almost all the increase in economic activity goes to the immigrants themselves in the form of their income. How much immigrants add to the aggregate size of the economy is not a measure of the their benefit to the rest of the U.S. population.

Despite its unrealistic cost estimates, the AIC report is correct in one sense: Growing the illegal population is much easier than reducing it. A president who desires more immigration beyond what Congress has authorized need only open the door, and inadmissible migrants will happily enter through it. By contrast, a president who believes in the rule of law must find these migrants and compel them to exit – a much more difficult task. That’s why inadmissible migrants should not be allowed to enter in the first place. Bills such as H.R. 2, which imposes (or reaffirms) strict limits on the president’s discretion to open the doors that inadmissible migrants use, would help achieve that goal. The less illegal immigration that we have now, the less deportation will be necessary in the future.